What is the forecast for the Vietnam Dong in 2024?

Vietnam Dong Forecast for 2024: Modest Appreciation against the US Dollar

The Vietnamese Dong (VND) is poised to gain some ground against the US dollar (USD) in 2024, according to economic forecasts. The VND is projected to end the year at 25,120 VND per USD, a slight appreciation from its current level of around 25,400 VND per USD.

Easing Interest Rates

One factor contributing to the VND’s expected strengthening is the anticipated easing of interest rates by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). With inflation under control and economic growth expected to slow, the SBV is likely to reduce interest rates to support businesses and consumers. Lower interest rates make it less attractive for investors to hold foreign currencies, which increases demand for the VND.

Remittances, FDI, and Trade Surpluses

Another factor supporting the VND is the robust inflow of remittances, foreign direct investment (FDI), and trade surpluses. With a large Vietnamese diaspora overseas, remittances are a significant source of foreign currency for Vietnam. FDI is also expected to remain strong in 2024, as Vietnam continues to attract investment in manufacturing, tourism, and infrastructure. Additionally, Vietnam’s trade surplus is expected to continue, as exports remain strong and imports are kept in check.

Outlook for 2024

Based on these factors, the VND is expected to strengthen modestly against the USD in 2024. However, it is important to note that the forecast is subject to change based on global economic conditions and policy decisions.

Overall, the outlook for the VND is positive in 2024, with easing interest rates and a robust inflow of foreign currency expected to support its value against the USD.